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Despite raising their estimate of economic growth slightly for the second half of 2009 and next year, economists still predict the unemployment rate to reach 10 percent by the end of this year and remain there until mid-2010, according to results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey released October 10.

The group of about 50 economists, who were surveyed Oct. 5-6, viewed the recession as over. They boosted their consensus forecast of growth in real gross domestic product in the third quarter to a 3.2 percent annual rate, up 0.2 percentage points from their outlook one month earlier. That would mark a turnaround after real GDP declined in five of the previous six quarters since the recession began in December 2007.

However, most analysts still expect the economy to continue shedding jobs until the end of this year, though at a diminishing pace, the report said. "However, the consensus now expects the unemployment rate will average 10 percent over the next three quarters, receding only modestly from that level in the second half of 2010." The Blue Chip survey does not include a forecast of job growth or losses.

The generally recognized arbiter of when recessions begin and end, the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, MA, considers a range of economic indicators, including employment, in making its determination, usually several months after the start of a recovery.